Who this is for
Founder or sales leader who submits a monthly or quarterly forecast to a board or investor.
Someone asks how reliable the forecast has been, and nobody has ever scored it.
The result
You receive your recorded forecasts scored against actuals and against a seasonal baseline, period by period, with the error measure written down first and a plain verdict. If the baseline is better, you are handed the baseline and told so. No forecast for the future is promised.
What is included
- One sales series by month or quarter, aggregate only
- At least 24 months of actuals and at least 12 recorded forecasts
- Scoring of your 12 recorded forecasts against actuals and against a seasonal-naive baseline; they were made at the time, so they are already out of sample
- A simple statistical forecast fitted without the last 6 periods and scored on them, with the baseline handed over if it does not win
- A script that reproduces every figure
You receive
- The scored back-test by period
- The verdict, in the first paragraph
- The baseline forecast and the script
- A note on what the data could not show
What is not included
- A promise about future sales
- Scoring individual reps or teams
- Advice on hiring, spend or targets
- Interval or confidence claims on fewer than 30 periods
- Forecast software
What we need from you first
- The series, the period and how long you have recorded it
- How the forecast is made today, in a few sentences
- Whether past forecasts were saved when they were made
Never send passwords, keys, customer records or confidential code in the first enquiry. Secure handover is agreed after scoping.
How we check it is done
- Every error figure in the report is recomputed from your actuals by a second run, with identical results.
- The baseline forecast for each held-out period uses only data from before that period, shown by a leak check.
- The verdict states in its first paragraph whether your forecast, the simple model or the baseline had the lowest error on the last 6 periods.
- If the baseline is no worse than the simple model, the baseline forecast is handed over and the report says so.
You re-run the test yourself, check the list of severe errors and sign off in writing. Payment follows sign-off.
When we would stop or decline
- Forecasts were rebuilt after the fact, so the back-test would leak
- Promotions or stock-outs are undated and distort the series
- You want individual reps scored
Questions
Will you forecast next quarter?
No. We score the past and hand over a baseline you can reuse.
What if my forecast beats the baseline?
The report says so, with the periods and the error figures.
Do you use AI?
No language model is needed. The simple method is statistical; if a language model is tried it is scored the same way and must beat the baseline.
How is this different from the cash-flow forecast check?
That one replays methods on a monthly cash series. This one scores the sales forecasts you recorded at the time and also scores a simple method on the last 6 periods.
Price and terms
£295 · untested offer price. £295 after the agreed tests pass and you sign off. No payment before sign-off.
This is a new service with no published client results. The price is a starting point we have not yet tested with buyers. Nothing is ordered or charged by the enquiry. The full specification is on the Synthetic Industry catalogue.